How I would turn scattered market information into a price you can trust, and explain what moves it. Every number on this page can be traced to a source or to a stated assumption.
The assessed price is an independent test built from public reports, not an SMM price. For comparison, SMM's ASEAN HRC reference was USD 533/t CFR Vietnam on 26 October and USD 530/t on 28 October. Data in this sample run to 26 October.
Prices arrive as short chat messages. The monitor reads each message, puts it on one standard basis, weighs it by how strong the evidence is, screens out strange numbers, and only then sets a price. Type a message below and add it to the market to see the price react.
Example chips are made-up messages for testing. They are not market data.
| Date | Origin | Type | As reported | CFR Vietnam | Status | Why |
|---|
The ten starting messages are rebuilt from deals and offers published by SMM (links under Sources). They are not private trader conversations. The assessment is point-in-time: it uses only what was published by 26 October. Reports published later, such as a 30,000 t deal at USD 530/t reported on 27 October, are not included.
| Date | Price (USD/t) | Method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct | 531.8 | Volume-weighted deals | B |
| 21 Oct | 532.5 | Midpoint of best bid (531) and best offer (534) | B |
| 10 Aug | 510.0 | Rolled over: no new import data in the window | C |
| 31 Jul | 510.0 | Single Indian deal, 30,000 t | B |
Public sources had no import reports between 10 August and 21 October. A price reporter closes that gap by calling the market, which is the part public data cannot do.
A buyer compares the domestic mill's offer with the cost of imported coil landed at the port. Move the sliders to test the assumptions.
Landed cost = CFR × (1 + duty) + port cost. Duties for Indonesia (ATIGA) and India (AIFTA) are assumed at 0%; the actual rate depends on the HS code, rules of origin and a valid certificate of origin, and should be verified. Import VAT is left out because domestic and imported steel both pay it.
Vietnam put anti-dumping duties of 23.01–27.83% on Chinese HRC in July 2025 and left India out. Since then, China's volume has fallen while India and Indonesia have grown by more than China lost. The duty is one likely factor, not the only one: by 28 October, Indian offers of USD 565–570/t were well above the market.
2025 volumes are rebuilt from the 2026 volumes and reported growth rates. India's growth is reported only as "more than 1,000%", so its 2025 bar is an upper bound and its gain a lower bound. Origin data cover all steel products, while the duty covers Chinese HRC only, so the pattern points to substitution but does not prove it.
Construction steel prices rose 12.7% in H1 2026, faster than iron ore (+4.1%) and scrap (+6.8%), so steelmakers' margin over raw materials widened on both production routes.
Tonnages are rules of thumb, not plant data, so the spread shows direction rather than profit. H1 2025 levels are rebuilt from the Vietnam Steel Association's reported growth rates.
The same logic runs as a small Python toolkit with 16 automated tests. Every assumption sits in one settings file and carries a tag, so a reader knows what is fact and what is a judgement.
| Input | Value | Tag | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese HRC anti-dumping duty | 23.01–27.83% | D | MOIT decision, effective 6 Jul 2025 (S&P Global) |
| Domestic mill offer (Formosa, Oct) | 547 | D | SMM report, 21 Oct 2026 |
| Indonesia to Vietnam freight | 18 | Dv | CFR offer 533 minus FOB 515 on the same day (SMM) |
| Port, handling, clearance | 12 | E | Estimate, to verify with a forwarder |
| Duty on Indonesian and Indian HRC | 0% | E | Assumed under ATIGA and AIFTA, to verify |
| Raw material tonnages per tonne of steel | 1.6 / 0.75 / 1.1 | E | Industry rule of thumb |
D sourced Dv derived from sources E estimate to verify. Prices in USD/t.